When it comes to predicting the future, the shorter ahead you try to predict, the better you’ll generally be at getting it right.  Graeme Philipson at the Sydney Morning Herald published an article outlining his ten prophecies for what will happen with IT over the next ten years.  Of particular interest to me was number three on his list:

3. The rise of software as a service

Again, a consequence of the rise of other types of computing device. Data and processing and applications are moving off fixed computers – or even mobile computers – and on to the web.

This is increasingly being called "cloud computing" as all processing takes place in the "cloud" that is the internet. An important example is the craze for "software as a service", in which applications reside elsewhere and are accessed through a web browser.

I completely agree that mobile computing will push more companies to think about how they deliver software to their employees, but that alone will not drive people towards SaaS and Cloud Computing.  Companies already make services available to corporate users through web enabled interfaces – including email, the company portal/intranet, CRM systems, and more.  The real tipping point for switching from traditional software deployments to SaaS likely within the next few years: the inflexible cost of hosting the services on-site.

Really, the only thing that will break through corporate IT’s concerns about data security, scalability, uptime, SLAs, etc., etc. is one thing: if the cost of SaaS and Cloud Computing is more flexible and predictable than buying servers and gradually growing company-owned datacenters to meet computing needs.  I’ve outlined more about this in my previous post about the switch from IT CapEx to IT OpEx.

Some of the other prophecies on Philipson’s list seem a little far-fetched. (The supernet?  Really?), but it’s a good read otherwise.

Read the full article on the Sydney Morning Herald here.

Filed under: Cloud Computing, Enterprise Web, SaaS